This should be the best of times for the people who help keep America’s cars running. 

There have never been as many on the road—around 290 million light vehicles—and they have never been so old. One reason for that is good news: They are better made. Getting the odometer past 100,000 miles has gone from being noteworthy to normal. Thirty years ago the average passenger car was about 8.4 years old and today that is 13.6 years.

Less good: Pinched by inflation, higher interest rates and supply-chain woes, Americans just haven’t been buying as many new vehicles lately. The four-year rolling average of annualized sales is about 15.5 million, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. On the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic it was 17.7 million.

That sounds like great news for auto parts and repair companies. New cars have plush “original equipment” tires, few mechanical faults and are often serviced for free at the dealership. After four years, and up until they are around 11 years old, cars enter the industry’s sweet spot where they receive plenty of tender loving care from their owners. Yet despite so many cars in the right age range, there are some surprising signs that Americans are choosing cheaper options or even deferring purchases of the goods and services that keep them running.

In late May, shares of tire chain Monro plunged 12% when it said that adjusted same-store sales had dropped sharply during its 2024 fiscal year. Management explained that the poor results were “primarily driven by a strained low-to-middle income consumer that traded down to tires at opening price points” amid a glut of cheap, off-brand imports. Customer spending on services like brakes and shocks fell even more.

Then in September shares of Genuine Parts, owner of Napa auto-supply stores, crashed by more than a fifth—their biggest-ever one-day drop in decades on the stock market—following disappointing third-quarter results. Sales to commercial buyers were decent, but those to retail customers fell significantly. Chief Executive William Stengel told investors that this was “driven by continued cautious end consumer who’s deferring certain service and maintenance-related purchases.” 

And just weeks ago Valvoline, which provides quick, affordable oil changes, sounded a cautious tone, helping to send its shares down by nearly 9%. One might have expected more business to come its way when consumers are cost-conscious, but the knock-on effect of weak sales elsewhere hit them too. CEO Lori Flees later wrote in an email that “we are seeing some of those providers (such as tire service centers) promote discounted oil changes to drive traffic, as consumers are deferring or trading down those providers’ core service.”

Even during the best of times, many drivers let recommended service intervals slide for reasons that have nothing to do with money. Vehicle information company Carfax, which receives information from 151,000 providers in the U.S., said recently that 30% of American cars were overdue for tire rotation and 19% running late for an oil change. 

Skimping has rarely made less sense, though. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is up 36% in five years, so the return on investment on maintenance is meaningful. For many consumers, cars aren’t just vital to their livelihoods but also their most valuable possession. People who shop at the leading four U.S. auto-parts retailers have a median household income about 7% below the typical U.S. level, according to data from Placer.ai.

There is evidence from dollar stores and food companies of penny-pinching by lower-income households too, but choosing a no-name tire is different than switching to store-brand mac and cheese—it could be penny wise, pound foolish. For example, one national discount tire chain offers an “Entry” level tire, with no brand name specified, that would fit a Ford Explorer for $149.99. Its warranty is good for just 40,000 miles. A Goodyear tire fitting the same vehicle costs $254 but has a warranty for 60,000 miles, plus other quality and safety advantages.

Will buyers’ remorse ultimately be positive for manufacturers like Goodyear, which saw an 8.3% year-over-year drop in units sold last quarter in the Americas? Not necessarily. Plenty of iconic American brands have permanently lost share to cheap imports. Yet, while that trade off of price versus quality might be acceptable, motorists can’t take their car to China to be serviced.

Rising sales of EVs, which don’t require oil changes and have fewer moving parts, could depress business for auto parts stores and quick-lube chains, but that is probably too recent a trend to explain skimpy spending. In addition to economic strains, another factor is the pandemic and the work-from-home trend. Miles driven fell sharply in 2020 and only recently recovered to 2019 levels. 

A normal level of wear-and-tear should see maintenance spending stabilize even if the economy takes a turn for the worse, since new car sales tend to sag when unemployment rises. During the 2007-2009 recession, for example, shares of the three most retail-focused auto-parts chains actually rose and they beat the S&P 500 by 55 percentage points, on average. 

Asked about the pressure on consumers, AutoZone CEO Philip Daniele, a 30-year company veteran, told investors that “in tougher economic times, people will generally defer maintenance and discretionary items early in the cycle. And then, as we get further through the cycle, they start to repair their cars because they realize a little investment today, maintaining their vehicle, defers a major repair into the future.” Brent Kirby, president of rival O’Reilly Automotive, concurred in a recent call, noting that “when you look back to the historically tough years in this industry…we did see a bounce back and we did see that customer return.”

This business rarely fails to cash in on clunkers.