FTR: September trailer orders at their lowest since 2016

According to the latest numbers from FTR, September U.S. trailer net orders rose by 75% month-over-month (m/m) from a low base to 11,532 units but were down 63% year-over-year (y/y). Net orders were the lowest for a September since 2016. Despite the opening of 2025 order boards, the industry’s net orders fell well below FTR’s expectations, raising concerns for the upcoming order season, they said.

According to FTR, the challenging truck freight environment in 2024 is continuing to suppress U.S. trailer demand. Year-to-date (YTD) for 2024, total trailer net orders fell 31% y/y, reaching 92,642 units, averaging just 10,294 units per month. Total trailer build decreased by 11% m/m and 40% y/y in September, totaling just 15,617 units—the lowest monthly output since July 2020.

The numbers also show that in September, total net orders were once again below production levels, causing backlogs to drop by 4,255 units to just over 82,750 units. The larger m/m decrease in production compared to backlogs pushed the backlog/build ratio up to 5.3 months. Despite this increase, it remains the second-lowest reading since July 2020 and is about 0.6 months below the pre-2020 historical average. FTR says that this ratio suggests that manufacturers still have incentive to slow production further.

“Although trailer orders were weak in September, Class 8 orders slightly exceeded expectations at nearly 33,000 units for North America,” said Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “This divergence suggests that some fleets are prioritizing spending on new power units over trailers, possibly due to reduced profitability or shifting trade cycles. Higher-than-ideal trailer inventories at dealerships, lower fleet capital expenditures on trailers, and shrinking backlogs likely will put downward pressure on trailer build rates for the rest of 2024. If trailer orders for 2025 don’t pick up soon, some OEMs may extend or expand production cuts into next year.”